2026.06.25 - 15:38

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 Lebanon is wounded, yet it remains standing. Strong enough to endure, and potentially strong enough to confront Israel if it succeeds in preserving national cohesion and reclaiming an independent political decision-making process. This is not political rhetoric but a reading of a complex balance of power that continues to evolve without fundamentally collapsing.

In 2026, Lebanon finds itself at a crossroads defined by strategic choices rather than slogans. Within this landscape, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has emerged as a political operator who prefers building equations over making headlines.

Berris approach combines Arab partnerships, pragmatic engagement with Iran, and open channels with Europe. In a country as fragile as Lebanon, such positioning is less a luxury than a necessity.

At the same time, Hezbollahs current political and military posture appears increasingly difficult to reconcile with Lebanons broader national interests. The group can legitimately point to its role as a shield against Israeli aggression, but that shield has become increasingly vulnerable. Detached from state institutions, it risks becoming a source of instability rather than protection.

The only sustainable path forward may be integration into the Lebanese state rather than parallel existence alongside it. Such a transition would not signify surrender, but a transformation in which national institutions themselves become the framework of resistance and defense.

This assessment is not rooted in allegiance to either Saudi Arabia or Berri himself. It reflects what may be the most realistic reading of Lebanons current circumstances.

Regional Powers and Lebanons Future

Who helped prevent Syrias fragmentation?

Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Who may help prevent Lebanons fragmentation?

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, alongside a unified Lebanese Army supported by all parties committed to preserving national stability against attempts to ignite sectarian conflict.

Neither Riyadh, Ankara, nor Cairo seeks to see Lebanon transformed into an Israeli protectorate. Their strategic interests point in the opposite direction.

Yet a fundamental question remains: why do some media platforms financed by Gulf capital continue to promote narratives that align with Israeli objectives?

One interpretation is that while funding may be regional, editorial direction often reflects broader international agendas shaped through political and security partnerships extending beyond the Arab world.

The Battle Over South Lebanon

According to this perspective, Israel and its domestic allies are not seeking a temporary ceasefire but rather a permanent arrangement that would institutionalize an Israeli security zone south of the Litani River and gradually transform military realities into political facts on the ground.

Such a project relies not only on military pressure but also on internal political dynamics designed to restrict any Lebanese effort to challenge Israeli control under the banner of pragmatism and stability.

This is where Berris role becomes significant.

His strategy reportedly involved reassuring Saudi Arabia, maintaining dialogue with Egypt and Turkey, and preserving direct communication channels with Tehran independent of traditional party structures.

Supporters of this approach argue that these relationships helped prevent domestic tensions from escalating into open confrontation and reduced the likelihood of regional actors becoming directly involved in Lebanese internal disputes.

Balancing Competing Forces

Berris political formula, according to its advocates, rests on a dual-track strategy.

On one hand, communication with Iran helped contain hardline positions within Lebanons Shiite political sphere. On the other, engagement with Arab regional powers created a broader framework capable of counterbalancing pressure from Washington and Tel Aviv.

The result was the emergence of a political equation designed to prevent internal disagreements over Hezbollahs weapons from evolving into civil conflict.

Many expected Berri to eventually endorse a path of political capitulation. Instead, he chose to maintain support for the resistance camp while simultaneously building common interests among Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey.

More Than a Parliamentary Leader

Berris influence extends beyond his constitutional role as Speaker of Parliament.

He remains one of the most influential figures within a social and political environment capable of mobilizing significant grassroots support. Advocates of his strategy argue that, under the right circumstances, such influence could reinforce the Lebanese Armys efforts to maintain internal security and prevent a slide into civil war.

At the same time, military pressure against Israeli positions in the south continues to coexist with the armys role as guarantor of domestic stability, despite longstanding debates over its capabilities and responsibilities.

Lebanons Fragile Stability

Lebanon is living through one of the most difficult periods in its modern history.

Yet paradoxically, it remains resilient.

Resilient because the foundations of coexistence still exist within its society despite deep divisions.

Resilient because some political actors understand that survival is achieved not through slogans but through carefully constructed political equations capable of preventing collapse while preserving the possibility of a more stable future.

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